"One-Way-Out":  Contraflow Freeway Operation for Hurricane Evacuation
By Brian Wolshon

Over the past 20 years the coastal population of the southeastern United States that is vulnerable to hurricanes has increased significantly. Much of the recent planning and construction of infrastructure in these regions has taken place during a two-decade lull in hurricane activity. It is now apparent that these areas are not all suitably equipped to deal with the threat of severe hurricanes. As a result, a significant percentage of the coastal population is forced to evacuate under the threat of major hurricanes. This has been demonstrated recently during Hurricane Floyd in 1999 and during Hurricane Georges in 1998. One method suggested to meet the need to evacuate large numbers of people in a rapid and efficient manner is to contra flow segments of interstate freeway. Under contra flow operation, some or all inbound lanes of a freeway are used for outbound evacuation. While the concept is simple, implementation is complex. This paper discusses the advantages and disadvantages of contra flow operation on freeways during hurricane evacuations, including the capacity benefits, critical planning, design, and operational issues, and current contra flow operation plans from threatened states. The paper also provides a list of recommendations and needs that should be considered in the planning and implementation of contra flow evacuations.

Losses from Weather Extremes in the United States
By Stanley A. Changnon and Geoffrey J. D. Hewings

Historical data on weather extremes and their effects on the nation's economy since the 1940s were assessed to develop annual measures of nationwide losses and to assess their temporal behavior. Trends were upward for certain key hazards during 1950-1997 including losses associated with winter storms, floods, and crops and for the incidence of heavy rains. Trends were downward for energy costs and for losses from hurricanes, thunderstorms, and windstorms. Nine loss measures were used to calculate the nation's annual loss values for 1950-1997, and their order, based on magnitude, are energy costs, followed by losses from hurricanes, floods, severe thunderstorms, excessive moisture and temperature on crops, tornadoes, winter storms, hail, and windstorms. These variables will also be available in future years to allow continuing assessments. The 48-year average annual loss value was $17.47 billion (1997 dollars) with a 1-year maximum of $54.4 billion in 1972 and a minimum of $2.4 billion in 1963. The 48-year trend of losses was essentially unchanging with three notable high loss periods:  1951-1955, 1970-1974, and 1990- 1994.

Socioeconomic Reverberations of Earthquake Prediction:  Snapshot in Time, Peru 1979-1981
By Robert A. Olson and Richard Stuart Olson

Although the scientific capability to predict earthquakes has proven more elusive than was hoped for several decades ago, the concern over the social and economic response to prediction of an earthquake remains high. This paper examines the social and economic response to a scientific prediction for a strong earthquake to occur off Lima, Peru in mid-1981. The principal findings are that (1) public knowledge and anxiety over the prediction was widespread in Peru, but the behavioral response was relatively modest; and (2) corporations reviewed emergency plans and contingencies, especially insurance coverage, which saw a significant but temporary rise at the national level.

Comparing the Hurricane Disaster Risk of U.S. Coastal Counties
By Rachel A. Davidson and Kelly B. Lambert

This paper describes the Hurricane Disaster Risk Index (HDRI), a composite index developed to compare the risk of hurricane disaster in U.S. coastal counties.  Analogous to a quality of life index, the HDRI was developed to be an easily understandable tool that can be used to compare the relative risk of economic and life loss in different coastal counties in the United States, and to compare the different relative contributions of various factors, e.g., frequency of hurricanes and quality of emergency evacuation plan.  The HDRI is specifically intended to support local, state, and national government agencies as they (1) make resource allocation decisions; (2) make high-level planning decisions; and (3) raise public awareness of hurricane risk, its causes, and ways to manage it. This paper discusses the intended uses and background of the HDRI, the procedure used to develop it, and an analysis of 15 sample counties.

Medical and Public Health Consequences of Natural and Biological Disasters
By Eric K. Noji

Better epidemiological knowledge of the causes of death and types of injuries and illnesses caused by disasters is clearly essential to determine appropriate relief supplies, equipment, and personnel needed to effectively respond to such situations. The overall objective of health disaster managers is to measure and describe as accurately as possible the health effects of disasters and contributing factors to these effects, with the goals of assessing the needs of disaster-affected populations, efficient matching of resources to needs, further prevention of adverse health effects, evaluation of program effectiveness, and for contingency planning. In addition, public health professionals have an important role to play in providing informed advice about the probable health effects that may arise in the future, in establishing priorities for action, and in emphasizing the need for accurate information as the basis for relief decisions. This paper outlines a number of important areas where public health can contribute to making overall disaster management more effective.